WWC26 Superforecaster
Last 17/06 04:35 ET

Since last forecast KO times ET

16/06 15:00FRA3-1SEN
16/06 18:00IRA1-4NOR
16/06 21:00ARG3-0ALG
17/06 00:00AUS3-1JOR
17/06 13:00POR1-1CON
17/06 16:00ENG4-2CRO88'

Estimated WC winner shift

1.FRA11.512.8%+1.3ppt
2.SPA15.516.2%+0.8ppt
3.ARG9.610.3%+0.7ppt
Forecasts

Forecast @ 17 June 04:35 ET (Groups)

30m 8s runtime · $4.23

England open their World Cup campaign ranked third in our forecast at 9.9%, behind Spain at 15.5% and France at 11.5%. Three pillars underpin England's number: a corrected Andorra WCQ minnow-noise artefact that was penalising their ratings from international results, squad-value from Bellingham, Saka and Palmer that international results cannot capture, and a scenario branch where France's market premium partially collapses. Spain remain the model leader; Germany is discounted via a near 20-year Elo low.

% win WC
  1. Spain0.0%
  2. France0.0%
  3. England0.0%
  4. Argentina0.0%
  5. Portugal0.0%
  6. Brazil0.0%
  7. Germany0.0%
  8. Netherlands0.0%

Where we differ from the market

  • Our forecast 6.7%Market 5.8%+0.9pp above

    Germany's Elo rating of roughly 1910 in 2025 is the lowest since the pre-2006 era, yet their raw match-result model placed them near fourth in the field. Both the model and market scenario worlds carry a downward strength correction; the degree differs across worlds but the direction is consistent and both corrections clear the simulation noise floor.

  • Our forecast 11.5%Market 18.2%-6.7pp below

    France won 3-1 against Senegal with Mbappe in good form and Saliba confirmed fit at centre-back. Despite this, our ratings from international results cap France's ceiling at roughly 8.6% in the model world. Roughly 60% of France's de-vigged market price is treated as sentiment rather than signal, making France our largest disagreement with the betting market. A third scenario world grants only the defensible component of that premium.

  • Our forecast 9.9%Market 10.7%-0.7pp below

    Three factors drive the number: correcting an Andorra WCQ minnow-noise artefact that penalised England's strength rating, an argued squad-value premium from Bellingham, Saka and Palmer whose club form outpaces international results, and a scenario branch where France's inflated sentiment premium partially collapses, redistributing title share to England. Saka's achilles concern was priced at +0.09pp and collapsed as immaterial for tournament title odds.

Different plausible worlds

Each world is a distinct posterior over team strengths; the forecast is their weight-averaged mixture.

  • 35%Using our international-results ratings
  • 25%Using the betting market consensus
  • 40%Assuming France's market premium partially reverts

Distribution of winning the World Cup by team

Spain lead our forecast at 15.5% despite a 0-0 draw against Cabo Verde in their opening match.

15.5% is the weighted average of Spain’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.

Spain's model rating still places them as the strongest side in the tournament; the Cabo Verde draw is a single group result that does not alter the underlying strength estimate. Their path through Group H and likely knockout bracket keeps the ceiling high. The de-vigged betting market at around 13.5% sits below our published number, partly because the draw updated sentiment faster than a full-tournament strength estimate warrants.

Assuming France's market premium partially revertsFrance's de-vigged market price treated as roughly 60% sentiment; England squad-value premium retained independently. Prices the scenario where a significant part of France's market premium proves unfounded.
40%
Using our international-results ratingsWeighted match results from internationals, with an Andorra minnow-noise correction for England and an Elo-trend discount for Germany. Cannot price club-quality or market sentiment on France.
35%
Using the betting market consensusDe-vigged bookmaker consensus after margin removal. France premium fully granted; England squad-value premium retained. Cannot see if France sentiment is over-extrapolated.
25%

Sources considered by the agent

Internal forecast workings

  1. 1Audit against our own ratings

    Sim-anchored gap audit across five teams (noise floor 0.49pp). Two material findings: Germany is model-overstated by ~2.7pp due to Elo-trend divergence (Elo 1910 in 2025, lowest since pre-2006, vs model rank #4); England is model-understated by ~2.2pp due to Andorra WCQ minnow-noise (-11.3pp total p…

    • NOISE FLOOR: 0.49pp (paired-seed, 20k sims). Any cross-team delta below this is simulation noise.
    • FRANCE (-9.78pp gap, model 8.4% vs market 18.2%): MARKET PREFERRED. The gap is structural and non-artifactual. France's Elo is 2062 (healthy), strength pulls are all high-importance matches (WCQ/NL/WC), squad value 1300M EUR. The market price exceeds the model's own p90 (12.3%), implying the model s…
    • GERMANY (+4.46pp gap, model 10.3% vs market 5.8%): MODEL PARTIALLY DEFENSIBLE BUT OVERSTATED. Germany is model rank #4 (strength 1.513), marginally above France (1.510), but Elo has declined from 2133 peak (2014) to 1910 (2025), the lowest in nearly 20 years. Squad value 950M EUR trails France (1300…
    • ENGLAND (-3.22pp gap, focus team, model 7.4% vs market 10.6%): MODEL UNDERSTATED, ANDORRA ARTIFACT. The two largest single pulls-down on England's rating are both Andorra WCQ results (Jun 2025: 1-0 away, -5.35pp; Sep 2025: 2-0 home, -5.95pp) totaling -11.3pp. These are WCQ importance=2.5 but against…
    • COLOMBIA (+2.74pp gap, model 4.2% vs market 1.47%): MARKET PREFERRED. Squad value 330M EUR is far below tournament contenders. Copa America wins (Panama 5-0, Venezuela 6-3) inflate CONMEBOL qualifier record. Bolivia 0-1 and Ecuador 0-1 are the biggest pull-downs; mixed competitive quality. Implied m…

  2. 2Audit against the betting market

    Market-anchored gap audit complete across five teams. Noise floor: 0.344 pp (50k sims, seed 42). All headline impacts are well above floor. England's market premium is the most defensible; France's is the least. No mixture registered -- this is the market-anchored half for dialectical reconciliation…

    • NOISE FLOOR: 0.344 pp (50 000 sims, seed 42). All five gap impacts are material and well above floor.
    • FRANCE: Market 18.21% vs model 8.43% => gap -9.78 pp. Implied delta +0.181 (full impact +9.76 pp). Defensible premium: ~4.0 pp via squad/club quality (Mbappe/Real Madrid, Saliba/Dembele depth, proxy analog). INDEFENSIBLE: ~5.8 pp. The 18.21% market price implies France is roughly twice as li…
    • ENGLAND: Market 10.61% vs model 7.39% => gap -3.22 pp. Implied delta +0.080 (full impact +3.48 pp). Defensible premium: ~3.5 pp. The market premium maps almost exactly to the squad-value proxy (+0.085 delta). Bellingham (Real Madrid), Saka (Arsenal), Palmer (Chelsea), Foden represent a club-…
    • GERMANY: Market 5.80% vs model 10.26% => gap +4.46 pp (market below model). Implied delta -0.094 (full impact -3.39 pp). Defensible discount: ~3.4 pp. The model is inflated by minnow-blowout results (6-0 Slovakia, 7-0 Bosnia, 5-0 Hungary) that Poisson over-leverages relative to quality-opponent cons…
    • COLOMBIA: Market 1.47% vs model 4.21% => gap +2.74 pp (model above market). Implied delta -0.173 (full impact -2.80 pp). Defensible discount: ~2.0 pp. The model captures Copa America 2024 at importance=3.0, but that competition excluded top European sides; results vs non-European field inflate South…

  3. 3Combining the competing worlds

    England mixture mean 9.55% [5.97%-13.37%] across two co-equal worlds (this scenario and this scenario). The primary axis separating the worlds is the France structural gap (9.78pp model-vs-market), which drives 17.1pp of France spread (vs_floor 2.78x). Both ledger branches collapse below the 0.344pp nois…

    • England mixture mean 9.55% [p10 5.97%, p90 13.37%], vs_floor 1.13x. this scenario 9.09%, this scenario 10.02%; both driven by England Andorra WCQ minnow-noise correction and squad-value premium respectively.
    • France is the decisive axis between worlds: this scenario ~8.3% (model trust, no mechanism for structural gap), this scenario ~18.6% (full market deference, +0.181 delta). Mixture mean 13.47%, vs_floor 2.78x.
    • Germany discounted in both worlds: this scenario 7.22% (-0.046 Elo-trend), this scenario 4.82% (-0.094 tournament-ceiling). Mixture mean 6.02%, vs_floor 1.02x (barely above parameter floor but both directional components are material individually).
    • Saka achilles: MatchRatePerturbation match 22 at -0.15 home_goals_delta gives England +0.09pp title delta -- below 0.344pp noise floor. Collapsed. Saka self-confirmed ready; Madueke-starts scenario is single-fixture and immaterial to tournament title probability.
    • Neymar training: MatchRatePerturbation match 29 at -0.3 away_goals_delta gives Brazil +0.05pp delta -- below 0.344pp floor. Collapsed. Brazil baseline already reflects a Neymar-absent squad (no Brazil appearance since 2023); 'resumed individual training' does not add upside above model base…

  4. 4Re-pricing after challenge

    Three-world mixture registered as . England mean rises from 9.55% () to 9.87%, France falls from 13.93% to 12.21%, Germany from 6.10% to 6.62%. All four critic challenges resolved computationally. The key structural change is a this scenario world (weight 0.40) that earns its…

    • CHALLENGE 1 RESOLVED (France/England correlated tail): France-collapse crossing was priced at 50k. England gains +0.438pp when France market premium collapses to its defensible component (delta -0.181 -> -0.05); this exceeds the 0.344pp floor and earns a distinct this scenario world (weight=0.40).
    • CHALLENGE 2 CONFIRMED MATERIAL (Andorra revalidation at 50k): England Andorra delta (+0.047) revalidated at 50k/seed=42: +1.918pp title gain, comfortably above 0.344pp floor. Slightly trimmed vs (+2.2pp at 20k) but the directional finding holds. this scenario retains the +0.047 correction unc…
    • CHALLENGE 3 RESOLVED (Germany discount provenance): Germany Elo-only delta (-0.046) delivers -1.904pp (material). Combined market delta (-0.094) delivers -3.372pp. The incremental narrative discount (-0.048, ~1.47pp extra) is partially over-extended per . Correction: this scenario and france_c…
    • CHALLENGE 4 CONFIRMED NOISE (Residual England market gap): Mixture mean 9.87% vs market 10.61% = 0.74pp residual. This is within the parameter-noise band for a 3-world weighted mixture (floor 0.308pp per world). Andorra+squad-value naive combination overshoots market (13.16%), confirming the two pre…
    • MIXTURE SPREAD: England 9.82% mean [6.55%-14.05%], vs_floor=1.14x (above parameter floor, width earned). France 11.58% [5.85%-19.72%], vs_floor=2.26x (primary axis confirmed). Germany 6.49% [3.74%-9.65%], vs_floor=1.03x (barely above floor; Germany spread is narrow as both sim-anchored worlds agree…
Euros 2024 · the Wolves