WWC26 Superforecaster
Last 17/06 04:35 ET

Since last forecast KO times ET

16/06 15:00FRA3-1SEN
16/06 18:00IRA1-4NOR
16/06 21:00ARG3-0ALG
17/06 00:00AUS3-1JOR
17/06 13:00POR1-1CON
17/06 16:00ENG3-2CRO75'

Estimated WC winner shift

1.FRA11.513.0%+1.5ppt
2.ARG9.610.5%+0.8ppt
3.SPA15.515.7%+0.2ppt
Forecasts

Forecast @ 16 June 17:20 ET (Groups)

37m 5s runtime · $4.57

Spain lead the 2026 World Cup field on our ratings from international results, with France's market premium settled as a live contested branch and England third at 9.8% backed by the highest squad value in the tournament. Argentina and Portugal complete the top five.

% win WC
  1. Spain0.0%
  2. Argentina0.0%
  3. England0.0%
  4. France0.0%
  5. Portugal0.0%
  6. Brazil0.0%
  7. Germany0.0%
  8. Netherlands0.0%

Where we differ from the market

  • Our forecast 7.4%Market 5.9%+1.6pp above

    Our international-results ratings place Germany higher than the current bookmaker consensus does. The France-contested worlds apply a -0.07 adjustment, partially closing that gap, while the model camp preserves the higher base rating. A Germany form-uptrend case based on recent big wins was evaluated and collapsed since those results are already in the model baseline.

  • Our forecast 9.8%Market 10.8%-1.0pp below

    The squad-value covariate supports a +0.085 strength adjustment in both France-contested worlds. Bukayo Saka's fitness is monitored ahead of the Croatia opener June 17, but the confirmed picture is expected availability with substitution risk rather than absence. Our mixture sits close to but slightly below the de-vigged market consensus of 11.2% for England.

Different plausible worlds

Each world is a distinct posterior over team strengths; the forecast is their weight-averaged mixture.

  • 35%Using fitted international-results ratings
  • 65%France premium contested, other market corrections applied

Distribution of winning the World Cup by team

Spain top the field on international-results ratings, with Yamal managed carefully in the opener.

16.7% is the weighted average of Spain’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.

Our ratings from international results place Spain first across both the model camp and the France-contested camp. Yamal's precautionary load management against Cape Verde, confirmed in team news, is targeted at keeping him fit for the knockout rounds rather than signalling a lasting concern.

France premium contested, other market corrections appliedMarket corrections applied to Germany, Colombia, Belgium and England; France's premium is split into a partial-premium world and a collapse world, reflecting genuine disagreement between recent results and squad-depth signals.
65%
Using fitted international-results ratingsTitle probabilities derived from our Elo-based strength estimates alone, with no market corrections applied.
35%

Sources considered by the agent

Internal forecast workings

  1. 1Step 1

    Deterministic base audit complete. Six structural gaps identified (France -9.4pp, Germany +3.9pp, Colombia +3.0pp, England -3.6pp, Belgium +2.2pp all outside their p10-p90 bands; Argentina +1.3pp within-band noise). England's Croatia match title delta (+0.17pp win / -0.95pp loss) shows the win is be…

    • NOISE FLOOR: 0.44pp at 20k sims. Any cross-team title delta below this is simulation noise, not signal.
    • REFERENCE TABLE (model vs bookie vs Poly): Spain 16.3/13.8/13.8%, Argentina 10.1/8.8/9.4%, Germany 9.8/6.0/6.0%, Portugal 9.2/10.2/10.3%, France 8.2/17.6/17.4%, Brazil 7.6/6.7/6.5%, England 7.2/10.8/10.4%, Netherlands 5.1/4.3/4.4%, Colombia 4.4/1.5/1.5%, Belgium 4.0/1.7/1.7%.
    • FRANCE (-9.4pp): STRUCTURAL. Bookie 17.6% is well above model p90=12.1%. Model sees recent record weaknesses (Croatia 0-2 Mar25, Italy 1-3 Sep24, Ivory Coast 1-2 Jun26). Market prices a Mbappe/star-quality premium not captured in international results. Implied delta +0.172 strength units would move…
    • GERMANY (+3.9pp): STRUCTURAL. Bookie 6.0% equals model p10=6.0% -- at the bottom boundary of the parameter band. Elo trajectory shows decline since 2014 peak (2025 Elo ~1910). Key downward pull: Slovakia 0-2 Sep25 (-6.7pp share). Model right case: recent big wins (Bosnia 7-0 Nov24, Hungary 5-0 Sep24…
    • ENGLAND (-3.6pp): STRUCTURAL. Bookie 10.8% vs model p90=10.1% -- marginally above band, structural. Squad value EUR 1500M is the highest in the dataset, well above France (1300M) and Germany (950M), suggesting the market incorporates club-quality premium not reflected in international results alone.

  2. 2Combining the competing worlds

    Mixture artifact registered (this scenario 40%, this scenario 60%). England mixture mean 9.32% (model base 7.11%, market base 10.79%), width 9.3pp = 1.56x parameter floor, confirming earned width. France 14.31% mixture mean (model 8.09%, market 18.45%), width 17.3pp = 2.85x floor, the widest…

    • MIXTURE ARTIFACT: registered. Worlds: this scenario (40%), this scenario (60%). Noise floor 0.254pp at mixture resolution.
    • GAP AUDIT TABLE -- France: model 8.2% vs market 17.6% (gap -9.4pp, outside p90=12.1%); implied delta +0.172 str units. Market right case: Mbappe absolute quality, Deschamps tournament experience, squad depth missing from international-results rating. Model right case: recent losses (Croatia 0-2 Mar2…
    • SAKA PRICING (): Mechanism = managed Achilles load, 'ready to go' for Croatia but substitution risk. Appropriate instrument: MatchRatePerturbation on m22 (not tournament-long StrengthPerturbation). Tested home_goals_delta = -0.1: England title delta -0.245pp. Tested ceiling -0.2: England tit…
    • ENGLAND PATH: Group win probability 62.5%, runner-up 28.4%. Path difficulty 1.149 (above average). Expected opponent strength rises sharply in later rounds (QF 1.28, SF 1.48, Final 1.56). Croatia (m22) leverage: win +0.17pp (below floor), loss -0.95pp (above floor, materially damaging via runner-up…
    • SPREAD READ: England width 9.3pp = 1.56x parameter floor (floor width 6.0pp). Width is earned, not padded. France width 17.3pp = 2.85x floor, reflecting the largest structural gap and distribution uncertainty in the France strength perturbation. Spain vs_floor=1.00, Argentina vs_floor=0.90 (paramete…

  3. 3Step 3

    Corrected mixture () registered: this scenario 35% / market_corrected 65%. France premium partially collapsed from +0.172 to +0.09 (France mixture 11.52% vs prior 14.31%); Germany no separate branch, market discount -0.07 maintained; England +0.085 and Colombia -0.166 both survive the floor.

    • FRANCE ADJUDICATION: The +0.172 delta from is partially collapsed to +0.09 (sd 0.04). The full delta implausibly places France above Spain at 17.7% (vs Spain 15.4%) in the market world -- an extraordinary claim requiring extraordinary evidence that does not exist. Squad-value proportiona…
    • GERMANY BRANCH DECISION: No separate Germany branch. The +3.87pp model-vs-market gap and zero legs_disagree (strongest possible market consensus) justify the -0.07 discount in the market world. The 'recent-form-beats-Elo' hypothesis is rebutted by the evidence: Germany lost to Slovakia 0-2 (Sep25) A…
    • ENGLAND SQUAD VALUE CONFIRMED: +0.085 (sd 0.03) carried forward from . Material: 3.79pp vs 0.39pp noise floor. EUR1500M squad value is the highest in the tournament; independent covariate support is strong. England mixture 9.86%, width 10.7pp = 1.78x parameter floor.
    • COLOMBIA ASYMMETRIC RISK CONFIRMED: -0.166 (sd 0.04) carried forward. Material: 2.94pp vs 0.39pp floor. Both market legs agree (legs_disagree -0.06pp). Copa America overfit case stands; EUR330M squad value is a fraction of peers. Colombia market world: 2.16% vs model 8.26%. Asymmetric risk flag from…
    • BELGIUM GOLDEN-GEN DECAY: -0.142 (sd 0.04) carried forward. Material: 2.64pp vs 0.39pp floor. No new evidence changes this stance. Belgium market world 1.77% vs model 4.20%.

  4. 4Step 4

    France premium settled as a two-world branch ( registered). The +0.09 partial premium from is MATERIAL (4.56pp France title impact, 13.6x the 0.336pp noise floor) and cannot be collapsed to zero without a floor-backed reason. However, carrying it at the full 65% market weight…

    • FRANCE PREMIUM DECISION: Partial premium +0.09 is MATERIAL (+4.56pp title impact, 13.6x noise floor 0.336pp). Published as two-world branch: france_premium (25%) vs france_collapsed (40%). Not fully collapsed because squad-quality mechanism is real and market consensus is strong (legs_disagree 0.16p…
    • MIXTURE-004 registered (3 worlds 35/25/40): Spain 17.1%, Argentina 10.3%, England 10.0%, France 9.8%, Portugal 9.3%, Germany 7.6%, Brazil 7.5%. France down from 11.52% in to 9.78%.
    • NOISE FLOOR: 0.336pp at 50k sims for impact pricing; 0.254pp for mixture floor. France +0.09 impact is 13.6x the 0.336pp floor - unambiguously material.
    • FRANCE COLLAPSE IMPACT: -3.07pp France title (MATERIAL), +0.72pp Spain, +0.65pp Germany both material. This confirms the branch carries real stakes across multiple teams.
    • SPREAD CHECK: France 7.7pp width, 1.26x parameter floor (earned by genuine branch uncertainty). England 9.9pp, 1.65x floor. Germany 7.5pp, 0.93x floor - at floor due to consistent discount across both market worlds.

  5. 5Step 5

    Registered is a structurally clean replacement for . The single defect fixed: the branch_audit entry for `germany_recent_form_branch` had `world_names=["france_premium","france_collapsed"]` despite status="collapsed" -- the validator read this as a collapsed branch keeping liv…

    • Registered artifact: (day_mixture_20260617_france_settled_v2)…
    • World table: this scenario 35% | france_premium 25% | france_collapsed 40% (sum=1.00)…
    • Top titles: Spain 17.1%, Argentina 10.3%, England 10.0%, France 9.8%, Portugal 9.3%, Germany 7.6%, Brazil 7.5%…
    • Spread vs floor: France 7.7pp / 1.26x floor (earned); England 9.9pp / 1.65x floor (earned); Germany 7.5pp / 0.93x floor (at floor, Germany uncertainty absorbed by market-consensus alignment -- same as finding); Spain 10.3pp / 1.03x floor…
    • France world conditionals: this scenario 8.1%, france_premium 12.5%, france_collapsed 8.7% -- branch axis is doing real work across 4.4pp spread…
Euros 2024 · the Wolves