WWC26 Superforecaster
Last 17/06 04:35 ET

Since last forecast KO times ET

16/06 15:00FRA3-1SEN
16/06 18:00IRA1-4NOR
16/06 21:00ARG3-0ALG
17/06 00:00AUS3-1JOR
17/06 13:00POR1-1CON
17/06 16:00ENG3-2CRO78'

Estimated WC winner shift

1.FRA11.513.4%+1.9ppt
2.SPA15.515.9%+0.4ppt
3.ENG9.910.2%+0.3ppt
Forecasts

Forecast @ 15 June 15:26 ET (Groups)

22m 20s runtime · $2.37

Spain lead at 15.9%, France are second at 10.9% and England fifth at 8.1%. The market signal lifts France and England from the fitted model, but the published curve keeps both below the raw market price. Spain stay first, though Yamal and Williams fitness concerns trim some of the model edge.

% win WC
  1. Spain0.0%
  2. France0.0%
  3. Portugal0.0%
  4. Argentina0.0%
  5. England0.0%
  6. Brazil0.0%
  7. Germany0.0%
  8. Colombia0.0%

Where we differ from the market

  • Our forecast 15.9%Market 14.9%+1.0pp above

    Spain remain highest on the fitted-model camp at about 17.6%, while the market-informed camp is nearer 15.2%. Fitness concerns for Yamal and Williams trim the early-group attack case, but Spain remain clear enough across both views to stay top.

  • Our forecast 10.9%Market 16.5%-5.6pp below

    On the published curve, France are about 7.3% in the fitted-model camp and 11.3% in the market-informed camp. Raw de-vigged markets sit much higher, near 16.5%, so the forecast gives that gap partial credit for squad strength and tournament pedigree without following the market all the way.

Different plausible worlds

Each world is a distinct posterior over team strengths; the forecast is their weight-averaged mixture.

  • 18%Fitted simulation
  • 82%Market-informed simulation

Distribution of winning the World Cup by team

Spain lead at 15.9%, still first despite Yamal and Williams fitness doubts.

15.9% is the weighted average of Spain’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.

Spain remain highest on the fitted-model camp at about 17.6%, while the market-informed camp is nearer 15.2%. Fitness concerns for Yamal and Williams trim the early-group attack case, but Spain remain clear enough across both views to stay top.

Market-informed simulationBookmaker and exchange prices translated into strength views, then shown on the same published scale as the curve.
82%
Fitted simulationTime-decayed team strengths from international results, with played tournament results already folded in.
18%

Sources considered by the agent

Internal forecast workings

  1. 1Step 1

    Three candidate branches adjudicated and four major gaps reconciled. Spain-Yamal fitness clears the floor; Brazil-Neymar and the Netherlands draw collapse below it. France and England raw market gaps were material, but the published curve later scales the market-informed view back toward the fitted simulation.

    • Spain-Yamal fitness clears the priced floor: the branch trims Spain attack in the relevant group matches and survives at the submitted weight.
    • Brazil-Neymar absence collapses below the floor: the title effect of one short-term group-match absence is too small for a separate branch.
    • France raw market gap is structural: fitted model around 8.1%, raw market around 16.5%, with both market legs agreeing. The published curve only gives this partial credit.
    • England raw market gap is borderline structural: fitted model around 7.0%, raw market around 10.7%. The published curve shows about 6.5% in the fitted-model camp and 8.2% in the market-informed camp, so the displayed number is 8.1%, not the raw market price.

  2. 2Combining the competing worlds

    Day-5 mixture registered with 3 worlds: fitted model, market-informed base and market-informed base with Spain attack trimmed. Published surface: Spain 15.9%, France 10.9%, Portugal 9.5%, Argentina 9.1%, England 8.1%, Brazil 7.8%, Germany 7.8%.

    • Mixture worlds: fitted model weight 0.1755, market-informed base weight 0.4745, and market-informed plus Yamal fitness doubt weight 0.35.
    • England treatment: raw market anchor is around 10.7%, but the published curve shows England at 6.5% in the fitted-model camp, 8.2% in the market-informed camp and 8.1% overall. No independent England world is added because the squad-depth signal is already inside the market-informed base.
    • Spain-Yamal branch: the branch trims Spain attack for matches 38 and 66 and pulls Spain below the pure fitted-model read while leaving Spain first overall.
    • Brazil-Neymar branch: collapsed below the floor; the short-term absence is not large enough to warrant a separate title world.
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